Deportations, Tariffs, and Whiplash Economics: How Trump’s New Policies Are Fueling Inflation.

Trump’s immigration crackdown and tariffs are squeezing the U.S. economy—driving up inflation, straining labor markets, and creating instability that hurts everyday Americans.

Introduction: President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought an aggressive immigration crackdown and a revival of trade tariffs – a one-two punch that many economists warn is driving up inflation and hurting everyday Americans. Trump’s administration boasts that deporting undocumented immigrants frees up jobs for U.S. workers, and touts tariffs as tough trade policy. But the reality on the ground tells a far more troubling story: labor shortages, rising prices, and an atmosphere of economic uncertainty that is squeezing households and businesses alike. In this opinionated look at Trump’s recent economic moves, we examine how deporting 750 immigrants per day and slapping tariffs on imports are contributing to inflation – and why Trump’s erratic, on-again/off-again approach to economic policy is making matters worse for a populace desperate for stability.

Immigrant farmworkers harvest lettuce in California. Labor shortages in agriculture due to immigration crackdowns can lead to higher production costs and contribute to rising food prices.

Immigration Crackdown: Labor Shortages and Rising Prices

Trump’s new immigration policies have sharply tightened the labor supply, and economists are sounding the alarm about the inflationary side effects. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi points out that the foreign-born labor force is shrinking dramatically, while overall U.S. labor force growth has “gone flat” since the start of the yearainvest.com. In practical terms, this means critical industries are suddenly starved of workers, forcing wages and prices higher. Zandi notes that Trump’s administration is deporting about 750 immigrants a day, and warns that if this pace continues, inflation could surge from roughly 2.5% now to nearly 4% by early next yearainvest.com. Recent data lend credence to his warning: the Labor Department’s Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 0.9% from June to July – the biggest monthly spike since 2021 – with services costs surging as businesses struggled to fill jobsainvest.com.

The “fingerprints” of Trump’s immigration crackdown are all over these inflation figures, according to Zandi. Sectors that rely heavily on immigrant workers are seeing especially steep cost increases. In fact, wholesale prices for fresh and dry vegetables spiked nearly 40% in one month, an eye-popping rise that analysts say cannot be explained by weather or supply chain hiccups aloneainvest.com. Zandi argues that restrictive immigration policies are a major culprit, creating worker shortages that drive up wages and, in turn, pricesainvest.com. It’s not just farming: a wide range of industries are feeling the labor pinch and passing costs along to consumers. Some of the sectors hit hardest by the sudden shortage of immigrant labor include:

• Construction and Manufacturing: Homebuilders and factories report difficulty finding enough workers, delaying projects and raising costs.
• Agriculture and Food Processing: Farms and meatpackers depend on migrant labor; fewer workers mean higher wages and even unharvested crops, contributing to food price inflation.
• Transportation & Distribution: Trucking companies and warehouses struggle to staff up, tightening supply chains and raising logistics costs.
• Hospitality & Retail: Hotels, restaurants, and stores – many staffed by immigrants – face understaffing, leading to reduced services or higher prices to attract scarce labor.
• Child Care, Elder Care & Other Services: Sectors like daycare, nursing homes, cleaning, and dry cleaning have traditionally employed many immigrants; now they grapple with worker shortfalls and rising wage bills.

Economists describe this as a classic supply-side shock – fewer available workers means higher labor costs, which filter into pricesainvest.comainvest.com. Unlike a demand-driven boom (where consumers bid up prices), this inflation isn’t due to overheated buying, but rather a lack of hands to do the work. Zandi bluntly states that “the restrictive immigration policy is significantly lifting costs” in these immigrant-dependent industriesainvest.com. For example, produce growers in California have reported crops left rotting because there were not enough workers to pick them, even as grocery prices climb. At a GE Appliances factory in Kentucky, over 125 employees were abruptly forced out of their jobs this spring when their work permits were canceled under Trump’s policiestheguardian.com. “That created chaos, and it was hard to get things done,” one worker noted, describing how production targets were missed due to the sudden labor gaptheguardian.com. At a Kraft Heinz food plant in Michigan, longtime employees with work authorization were removed “at the drop of a hat,” forcing remaining staff to run two machines at once and work grueling overtime to keep the plant runningtheguardian.com. “Managers are stressed out, and [are] canceling vacations for people because they don’t have enough [workers],” a mechanic there told The Guardiantheguardian.com. These firsthand accounts underscore how deportations are disrupting business operations and driving up costs – costs that inevitably trickle down to consumers.

The White House disputes the idea that Trump’s deportation drive is fueling inflation. Administration spokesperson Abigail Jackson frames the crackdown as an effort to “unlock untapped potential” in the domestic workforce, noting that more than one in ten young Americans is currently neither employed nor in schooltheguardian.com. In theory, employers could replace deported migrants with those millions of idle U.S.-born workers. Indeed, Jackson claimed that since Trump returned to office, “100% of job gains have gone to native-born American workers,” insisting “there is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force”theguardian.com. This rhetoric suggests that deportations are creating opportunities for U.S. citizens and thus boosting the native workforce. However, the data so far tell a different story. Six months into Trump’s term, the overall labor force hasn’t meaningfully expanded despite the removal of many immigrantsainvest.com. Those economically inactive young Americans have not flooded in to fill the gaps. If anything, many businesses report unfilled vacancies rather than an abundance of eager new hires. Even conservative-leaning analysts acknowledge a genuine labor squeeze: Heritage Foundation economist Steve Moore, an advisor to Trump, conceded that deportations of working immigrants “could have a slight impact on wages and thus prices” by worsening labor shortagesainvest.com. And in a rare moment of agreement, economists from across the political spectrum are warning that net immigration to the U.S. could fall to zero or even turn negative – something not seen in over 50 years – which would “weigh on economic growth and fuel inflation,” as a Washington Post report summarizedwashingtonpost.com. In short, even if the administration won’t admit it, Trump’s war on immigrant labor is backfiring economically: it’s constraining the workforce in a way that pushes inflation higher, without delivering a commensurate benefit in employment for U.S.-born workers.

Tariffs: A Tax on Americans Driving Up Costs

Hand-in-hand with the immigration crackdown is Trump’s revived love of tariffs – import taxes on foreign goods – which is further fanning the flames of inflation. Since returning to office, Trump has aggressively raised tariffs on a range of imports, from Chinese electronics to European steel, as part of his “America First” trade agenda. The blunt reality of tariffs is that they act as a hidden sales tax on consumers and businesses: when the U.S. slaps a tariff on imported products or components, it’s American companies and households who inevitably pay more. Economists widely agree that Trump’s tariffs are pushing prices higher across the economy. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently estimated that the new tariffs implemented in 2025 will raise inflation by an additional 0.4 percentage points per year in 2025 and 2026, as businesses pass on higher import costs to customersreuters.com. In a letter to lawmakers, the CBO warned that Trump’s tariffs “raise the costs of consumer and capital goods,” and reduce households’ purchasing powerreuters.comreuters.com. In effect, the tariff hikes are counteracting any relief Americans might feel from slowing demand-side inflation, instead adding another supply-side price shock on top of the labor shortages.

It’s difficult to overstate how significant Trump’s tariff regime has become. By mid-2025, the average U.S. tariff rate has been driven up to levels not seen since the 1930s – an effective tariff rate of around 15–18% on imports, compared to just 3% before the trade warsbudgetlab.yale.edubudgetlab.yale.edu. Analysis by the Tax Foundation finds that Trump’s tariffs amount to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per U.S. household in 2025, as consumers pay more for everything from clothing and electronics to foodtaxfoundation.org. Another study from Yale University’s budget research team calculated that the 2025 tariffs will raise consumer prices by about 1.8% in the short run, equivalent to a hit of roughly $2,000 per household in lost real incomebudgetlab.yale.edubudgetlab.yale.edu. These are substantial costs directly borne by American families – essentially an inflationary tax imposed by executive fiat.

Businesses, too, are reeling from the whiplash of Trump’s tariff wall. Companies that rely on imported materials or components have seen their costs spike, forcing many to either hike prices or swallow lower margins (which often leads to cutbacks elsewhere). Manufacturers and retailers are grappling with “uncertainty and cost inflation” due to these trade policiesinsights.som.yale.edu. It’s not just the magnitude of the tariffs, but their arbitrary and unpredictable nature that is wreaking havoc. Trump’s trade moves often come suddenly and capriciously: one week he’ll threaten a new tariff on Mexican goods, only to postpone it at the eleventh hour; the next, he’ll slap an unscheduled tariff increase on Canadian products with no warninginsights.som.yale.edu. Such erratic policymaking leaves importers and suppliers unable to plan – they either must raise prices preemptively to cushion against the next tariff shock or risk getting hit with higher costs down the line. As one Yale commentary put it, “tariffs have fundamentally disrupted markets,” subjecting businesses to a double threat of uncertainty and rising costsinsights.som.yale.edu.

Notably, even Trump’s own officials have at times admitted tariffs can fuel inflation. An internal Labor Department analysis (as reported by ABC News) observed that a large jump in wholesale vegetable prices this summer likely had multiple causes – bad weather, supply logistics – but that tariffs were a contributing factor by adding costs to imported produceabcnews.go.comabcnews.go.com. And when combined with the farm labor shortages discussed earlier, the effect is amplified: import taxes on food + fewer farm workers = price spikes. It’s a perfect storm of inflationary pressure hitting Americans at the supermarket checkout. We are already seeing hints of this in consumer sentiment – surveys show Americans bracing for higher prices as Trump’s new tariffs roll outabcnews.go.com. Even a popular fast-casual restaurant chain, Sweetgreen, explicitly blamed Trump’s tariffs for a noticeable drop in its profit margins, as ingredient costs roseabcnews.go.com.

Trump, for his part, denies that his tariffs are hurting Americans, insisting (against most evidence) that foreigners are footing the bill. In an August social media post, the President claimed that tariffs have “not caused inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.” He argued that consumers “aren’t even paying” the tariffs in most cases – that the costs are being absorbed by exporting companies or foreign governmentsabcnews.go.com. This rosy assessment is strongly refuted by economic data. In truth, tariff revenue pouring into the U.S. Treasury is coming out of Americans’ wallets – it’s effectively a transfer from U.S. consumers (and companies) to the government. And while Trump crows about the billions collected, independent analysts note that these duties function as a regressive tax, hitting lower-income households hardest by raising the price of basic goods. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office concluded that Trump’s tariffs, while generating revenue, will also shrink U.S. economic output and reduce household income when all is said and donereuters.comreuters.com. Even some of Trump’s political allies have grown uneasy about the inflationary impact – behind closed doors, business-friendly Republicans worry that sustained 4% inflation would wreck the administration’s bragging rights on the economy.

Economic Whiplash: Trump’s Volatility and “On-a-Whim” Policy Shifts

Perhaps even more damaging than any single policy is the chaotic, unpredictable style with which Trump is managing economic issues. CEOs, small business owners, and working families alike are struggling to navigate an environment where the rules seem to change by the day, depending on the President’s mood or political calculations. Trump’s decision-making has been so inconsistent that one commentator quipped he should be nicknamed “TACO Trump – Trump Always Chickens Out”, describing how he makes big threats then abruptly reverses himselfinsights.som.yale.edu. This governance-by-whim creates a climate of pervasive uncertainty that stifles investment and raises costs across the board. As The Century Foundation’s economists put it, “Trump’s erratic policymaking is stoking widespread uncertainty — from unpredictable tariffs, to immigration raids, to threats to disaster assistance, and more.” While Trump himself “faces no consequences for changing his mind on a whim, ordinary Americans are paying the price for his volatility every day,” they observetcf.org. In other words, the President’s habit of sudden U-turns and surprise edicts is not just political theater – it has real economic costs for those trying to make ends meet or run a business.

One glaring example has been the stop-and-go nature of Trump’s immigration enforcement. After launching a blitz of workplace raids and deportations in early 2025, the administration abruptly ordered a pause on crackdowns in certain industries – notably agriculture, hotels, and restaurants – when faced with an outcry from businesses in those sectorswashingtonpost.com. In essence, Trump temporarily exempted industries that complained about losing workers, even as raids continued elsewhere. This pick-and-choose approach left everyone guessing which jobs were safe and which weren’t, breeding confusion and resentment. Today’s policy is not necessarily tomorrow’s – that’s the takeaway many employers have internalized. Such whiplash was also seen in trade policy: one minute Trump announces new tariffs on a trading partner, the next minute he delays or cancels them after markets swoon or allies protestinsights.som.yale.edu. Companies have been forced to make “tough decisions today that could hamper their long-term success,” such as pulling back on hiring or rushing to stockpile inventory, because they simply don’t know what curveball might come nexttcf.org. Small businesses, in particular, are “deeply worried” about the economy under Trump, with nearly 60% saying conditions are worse than six months ago and many citing policy instability as a top concerntcf.orgtcf.org.

Trump’s mercurial management style extends to how he handles economic data and institutions as well. When federal statistics don’t fit his narrative – for instance, a shockingly low jobs report this July – he lashes out or even tries to change the messenger. (In one startling move, Trump reportedly fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after complaining that the disappointing jobs numbers must be “rigged”tcf.org.) This kind of interference undermines trust in the very data that businesses and consumers rely on, adding another layer of uncertainty. Trump’s regular pressure on the Federal Reserve – browbeating the central bank to cut interest rates even as his own policies drive supply-side inflation – sends mixed signals that rattle financial markets. The result is a jittery mood where investors and consumers are never quite sure if they should believe today’s pronouncements or brace for an about-face tomorrow.

Critics argue that Trump’s erratic approach is more than just a quirk – it’s fundamentally irresponsible governance. By injecting instability into economic policy, the President is effectively gambling with Americans’ livelihoods. “While Trump himself faces no consequences… ordinary Americans are paying the price for his volatility,” wrote Century Foundation fellows, calling his behavior recklesstcf.org. Some go further, suggesting that Trump’s habit of changing course on a whim should not be normalized – or even allowed – given the damage it can inflict on those who can least afford it. After all, it’s easy for a billionaire president to shrug off inflation or job losses as abstract numbers, but for families living paycheck to paycheck, these aren’t political games; they’re daily hardships. When the President one day promises relief from high living costs and the next day institutes policies that exacerbate those costs, people feel whipsawed and betrayed. Trump campaigned on helping “forgotten Americans” and lowering the cost of living, yet his policies have done the opposite – forcing consumers to spend more on basics like food, housing, and fuel, and making price spikes “that much more painful”tcf.org. Far from delivering on promises, Trump is intensifying the cost-of-living anxieties of a wide swath of Americanstcf.org.

Legally and constitutionally, Trump’s policy maneuvers are also raising red flags. In his zeal to impose tariffs unilaterally, Trump has stretched executive powers to their limits. He has invoked emergency economic powers and national security justifications to bypass Congress on tariffs – moves that courts have begun to strike down as overreach. In fact, two federal courts recently ruled that certain Trump tariffs exceeded the President’s authority, leading the administration to scramble in appealsreuters.comreuters.com. Using tariffs to advance personal or political agendas “certainly looks like an abuse of power,” warned a Yale School of Management analysis, noting that such behavior might fly in an authoritarian regime “but not in democratic countries”insights.som.yale.edu. The commentary highlighted Trump’s willingness to “cross lines previously never considered,” such as weaponizing trade duties against allies like Canada and Brazil for political leverageinsights.som.yale.edu. All of this is to say: Trump’s economic tactics aren’t just controversial – some of them push the envelope of legality and democratic norms. When a leader can upend economic policy on a whim – targeting whichever group or sector he pleases today – it creates a sense that no one is safe from the fallout. Americans are effectively living under economic edicts that can change overnight, a situation one might expect in unstable developing economies, not the United States.

Americans Pay the Price: Jobs and Livelihoods at Risk

What do these high-level policy debates mean for the average American? In a word: pain. Trump’s deportation-and-tariff strategy is exacting a toll on the very people he claims to protect – workers, consumers, and small businesses struggling to survive in an unsettled economy. Consider the job market: while Trump’s team celebrates that “job gains are going to native-born workers,” independent analyses suggest those gains are tenuous and likely smaller than the jobs being forfeited due to his policies. The Economic Policy Institute (a labor-oriented think tank) estimated that Trump’s plan to deport 4 million immigrants over four years would wipe out 3.3 million jobs held by those immigrants – and also cost 2.6 million jobs held by U.S.-born workerstheguardian.com. In other words, millions of American citizens could lose their employment as an indirect result of mass deportations, due to the contraction of businesses and reduced economic activity in sectors that relied on immigrant labor. A conservative think tank, the American Enterprise Institute, likewise projected that Trump’s immigration clampdown will lead to negative net migration (more people leaving the U.S. than entering) for the first time in decades, and cause U.S. GDP to drop by 0.3–0.4% annually (a loss of around $70–94 billion in output each year)theguardian.com. That’s less growth, fewer jobs, and lower wages than otherwise – hardly the “American prosperity” that Trump promised.

For those who do keep their jobs, daily life is becoming more difficult and expensive. Inflation, now creeping upward again, acts as a cruel tax on working families. Prices at the pump, the grocery store, and the rent office don’t care whether inflation is driven by demand or supply – they just know that a dollar isn’t stretching as far as it used to. Many Americans live paycheck to paycheck, and even a few percentage points more in food or utility costs can mean skipping meals or falling behind on bills. The cruelty of the current situation is that Americans are being squeezed from both sides: wages and job openings are under pressure due to a slowing economy, and the cost of living is climbing thanks in part to Trump’s policy choices. “Millions of workers have been paying the price for Trump’s uncertainty in the labor market,” wrote economists Julie Morgan and Rachel West, describing how hiring freezes and layoffs – spurred by tariff-induced business caution – have left workers with lower paychecks and fewer opportunitiestcf.orgtcf.org. At the same time, essential expenses like housing, healthcare, and groceries are biting harder. Trump’s economy is forcing families to make impossible choices, as The Century Foundation termed it – whether to pay the rent or buy enough food, whether to skip necessary medical care to cover the higher gas billtcf.org. It’s a bitter irony that a president who won office by railing against elites and promising to uplift “forgotten” Americans is now overseeing policies that many feel are kicking them while they’re down.

Take, for instance, a single mother who relies on affordable groceries and a steady job to support her kids. Under Trump’s current trajectory, she might find that the price of fresh produce and meat has jumped due to farm labor shortages and tariffs on food imports – a double whammy that forces her to cut back on nutritious items. She might also see local businesses hiring less or even laying off workers because of rising costs or uncertainty, making it harder for her or her neighbors to find work. If she or a family member works in construction, hospitality, or manufacturing, their employer might be struggling with staffing or higher input costs, putting future raises (or even job security) in doubt. In short, the very “forgotten men and women” Trump vowed to champion are bearing the brunt of these misguided policies. An AFL-CIO union panel recently warned that Trump’s immigration crackdown is “wreaking havoc across the families of our coworkers and in our communities,” noting that it hurts immigrant and native-born workers aliketheguardian.com. Union leaders from industries ranging from hospitality to construction stood together to decry how “this is something that affects every single working person in this country” when factories slow down, workplaces become more dangerous due to understaffing, and communities lose members overnight to deportationtheguardian.comtheguardian.com.

On the tariff side, small businesses are finding themselves in a vise. They have fewer resources than big corporations to absorb sudden cost increases or to navigate shifting trade rules. A small auto parts manufacturer, for example, might be slammed by higher steel and electronics prices thanks to tariffs, forcing them to either hike their own prices (and risk losing customers) or cut costs by freezing hiring or reducing worker hours. As one small business survey highlighted, economic insecurity is at its highest level since 2009 for America’s small firms, largely because owners can’t predict what new expense or disruption tomorrow’s news might bringtcf.orgtcf.org. Many are “deeply worried” about the future, and rightfully so – Trump’s habit of keeping everyone off balance means even prudent entrepreneurs fear they could be blindsided by the next tweet or executive order. For workers, this uncertainty often translates into stagnating wages and a fearful job market. People hesitate to seek better jobs or negotiate pay when the economy feels so unpredictable; research shows job-switching (a key way to get pay raises) has slowed, as workers cling to any stability they havetcf.org. This creates what analysts call a “low-hire, low-fire” equilibrium – few new jobs being created, but also workers staying put in unsatisfying roles out of fear, ultimately resulting in lower overall wage growthtcf.org. It’s an insidious way that Trump’s volatility chips away at Americans’ long-term prosperity: by keeping everyone nervous and cautious.

Conclusion: A Call for Stability and Rational Policy

America now faces an unsettling prospect: an inflation uptick and economic slowdown of its own making. Unlike a hurricane or a pandemic, this is a self-inflicted wound caused by policy choices. Trump’s mass deportations and tariff hikes have delivered a supply shock to the economy – fewer workers and costlier goods – that is pushing prices up even as growth shows signs of strain. It’s the textbook recipe for stagflation, a nightmarish scenario of stagnating output and rising inflation. The Federal Reserve is left in a bind: normally, if the economy cools, the Fed would cut interest rates to stimulate growth, but with inflation rising toward 4%, they are under pressure to keep rates high (or even hike them further) to contain pricesainvest.com. Yet higher rates won’t magically bring back deported workers or repeal tariffs. “Rate cuts won’t bring more immigrants into the country,” as Zandi dryly observesainvest.com. In other words, monetary policy can’t fix what are essentially supply-side and political problems. The Fed can only do so much when fiscal and immigration policies are working at cross purposes to economic stability. Some Wall Street analysts are now predicting the Fed will avoid any rate cuts for the rest of the year because Trump’s policies have raised the specter of persistent inflation despite softer demandainvest.com. Thus, American borrowers may pay the price in yet another way – through higher interest costs on mortgages, credit cards, and business loans – all because of policy-induced inflation pressure.

It doesn’t have to be this way. What the situation calls for is not more bluster or erratic moves, but a dose of rational, stable policymaking. On immigration, that means recognizing that workers from abroad are not enemies to be purged, but an integral part of the U.S. economy. As Zandi and many others advocate, implementing a sensible immigration policy that welcomes labor – skilled and unskilled – where it’s needed would be a “game changer.” It would alleviate worker shortages, boost innovation and entrepreneurship, and ultimately help lower inflation by increasing productive capacityainvest.com. The U.S. historically has benefited enormously from the energy and talents of immigrants; slamming the door now is an act of economic self-sabotage. A “rational” policy might include robust border security and expanded legal avenues for migrants to work in industries facing shortages, from agriculture to tech. It could also offer status to longer-term undocumented workers who are already contributing, rather than expelling them to the detriment of everyone. Such measures would increase the labor supply in a controlled way and take pressure off wages and prices, while keeping the recovery on track. Crucially, it would also reduce the fear and uncertainty pervading workplaces – no more stories of companies losing half their staff overnight, or workers anxiously looking over their shoulder.

On trade, a smarter approach would acknowledge that tariffs are a blunt tool that often backfire. The goal of confronting unfair trade practices (like China’s subsidies or IP theft) is valid, but tariffs are a tax on ourselves in the process. Diplomacy, multilateral pressure, and targeted measures would likely achieve more with less collateral damage. At minimum, the administration should provide a clear and consistent roadmap on trade policy, instead of governing by surprise. Businesses can adapt to challenges – if they know what the rules will be. It’s the constant upheaval that they (and markets) cannot stand. Ending the on-again, off-again tariff “tantrums”insights.som.yale.edu and seeking negotiated solutions would help stabilize prices and supply chains. It would also rebuild U.S. credibility with allies and investors who have been unnerved by the wild swings of the past months. Trump once famously said that trade wars are “good and easy to win” – a quip now proven disastrously wrong. In reality, no one wins a trade war outright, and the combatants (in this case, the U.S. and its trading partners) both suffer economic wounds. Recognizing this and stepping back from endless escalation would be a boon to the fight against inflation.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the nation needs a return to evidence-based, steady leadership in economic policy. American families deserve a degree of predictability – the confidence that their president won’t one day decide to upend the economy in a fit of pique or as a distraction from political troubles. We have seen the consequences of the current approach: ordinary people caught in the crossfire of grandstanding and impulsiveness. As one policy expert lamented, under Trump’s volatile tenure “ordinary Americans are paying the price for his volatility every day”tcf.org. That price is measured in higher grocery bills, lost jobs, stalled careers, and sleepless nights worrying about what comes next. It shouldn’t be normal for people to wake up at 3 AM to check Twitter for fear of a new tariff announcement or immigration decree that could jeopardize their livelihood. Such governance by chaos is not only unnecessary – it verges on cruel in an economy where so many live on the edge.

If there is a silver lining, it’s that these issues are fixable with the right course correction. Inflation, even supply-driven, will eventually moderate if the root causes are addressed. Labor shortages can be eased by letting willing workers in. Businesses will invest and hire again when they trust that policies won’t yank the rug out from under them. The American economy is fundamentally resilient – it can roar back if given the chance to operate without artificial hindrances and constant upheaval. The path forward must start with President Trump realizing that economic policy isn’t a reality show, where drama and surprise might score ratings. Lives and livelihoods are at stake. Stability, consistency, and fairness should be the guiding principles. At the end of the day, leadership is about making people’s lives better, not harder. Until Trump embraces that basic tenet – or is forced by public and political pressure to change course – we will likely remain stuck in this harmful loop of rising prices, eroding trust, and needless economic pain inflicted on a desperate public.

Sources:

1. Mark Zandi’s warning on deportations fueling inflation – Fortune / Moody’s Analytics via AInvestainvest.comainvest.com
2. Producer Price Index spike and services inflation data (July) – Fortune via AInvestainvest.com
3. Sectors with immigrant labor seeing cost surges (vegetable prices +40%, etc.) – Fortune via AInvestainvest.com
4. White House “untapped workforce” claim (Abigail Jackson statement) – The Guardiantheguardian.com
5. Net immigration turning negative, fueling inflation – Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
6. Heritage Foundation economist on labor shortages from deportations – Fortune via AInvestainvest.com
7. Example of factory disruptions from immigration crackdown – The Guardian (GE Appliances, Louisville)theguardian.comtheguardian.com
8. Example of food plant labor strain from deportations – The Guardian (Kraft Heinz, Michigan)theguardian.com
9. EPI estimate of job losses from mass deportations – The Guardiantheguardian.com
10. AEI estimate of GDP hit from immigration policies – The Guardiantheguardian.com
11. CBO letter: Tariffs add 0.4% to inflation, cut growth – Reutersreuters.com
12. Tariffs = uncertainty and cost inflation for businesses – Yale Insights / Saloninsights.som.yale.edu
13. Trump postponing Mexico tariffs & raising Canada’s – example of erratic moves – Yale Insights / Saloninsights.som.yale.edu
14. Average tariff cost per household ($1,300) – Tax Foundation via CRFBtaxfoundation.org
15. 2025 tariffs raise consumer prices ~1.8%, $2,000 per household – Yale Budget Labbudgetlab.yale.edubudgetlab.yale.edu
16. Trump’s erratic policy hurts Americans – Century Foundation Commentarytcf.org
17. Pause in immigration raids for certain industries after outcry – Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
18. Trump’s policies raising consumer basic costs, failing to deliver on promises – Century Foundation Commentarytcf.org
19. Courts ruling Trump’s tariffs exceeded authority (abuse of power concern) – Reuters / Yale Insightsreuters.cominsights.som.yale.edu

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