Trump’s Approval Slips: Are the Numbers Telling the Whole Story?

Trump’s second-term approval rating has slipped to a new low, but mixed poll results, issue-based approval gaps, and methodological differences suggest that the story is more complex than a single number can reveal.

Trump’s approval rating dips to a new second-term low, according to AtlasIntel—the nation’s most accurate pollster. Yet, a closer look at recent surveys uncovers a more complicated approval landscape, with issue-specific ups and downs, historical context, and a backdrop of economic anxieties and pollster rivalries.

Call it a déjà vu moment: Presidential approval numbers are once again dinging headlines and dinner table debates. As a self-confessed poll skeptic, I always found myself squinting at percentages, wondering if those numbers truly captured the mood of the nation. That suspicion only grew during the rollercoaster polling of the past decade. Now, with Atlas Intel—dubbed the ‘most accurate pollster’—reporting Donald Trump’s second-term approval hitting a new low, it’s time to ask: how much faith should we place in the data—or, put differently, are voters really more complicated than the numbers suggest?

Beneath the Surface: The Volatility of Trump Approval Rating Trends

The story of the Trump approval rating in 2025 is anything but straightforward. According to the latest AtlasIntel poll results—widely recognized as the most accurate in both the 2020 and 2024 cycles—President Trump’s approval rating has slipped to 45%, with 54% disapproving. That’s a net approval rating of about -10 points, marking a new low for his second term and signaling a steady downward trend since winter, when approval hovered between 46% and 50%.

But the picture isn’t as clear as it seems. While AtlasIntel’s numbers suggest a growing gap between approval and disapproval, other major polls tell a different story. The Trump approval rating trends are all over the map. For example, Insider Advantage’s May survey puts Trump at a robust 55% approval and just 44% disapproval—a net approval of +11. Meanwhile, YouGov/Economist’s late May poll shows only 44% approve, with 52% disapproving. McLaughlin’s data splits the difference, reporting 51% approval to 44% disapproval. Even Rasmussen, often cited for its Republican lean, gives Trump a 53% approval rating. The result? A polling landscape as volatile as the electorate itself.

So, what’s driving these wild swings in Trump net approval rating and Trump disapproval rating trends? Part of the answer lies in the methodology. AtlasIntel, lauded by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight for its accuracy, surveyed 3,469 adults with a margin of error of +/- 2%. Their proprietary data collection and post-stratification algorithms have set a new standard for reliability. Yet, as Silver himself notes,

“Accuracy in polling means nothing if the underlying electorate keeps changing its mind.”

Recent events have added fuel to the fire. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April rattled the markets, sending approval ratings into a brief tailspin. But as economic anxiety faded and consumer confidence rebounded—The Conference Board’s May reading jumped to 98, far above expectations—some polls began to show Trump’s numbers recovering. Morning Consult and RMG Research both report approval ratings holding steady or ticking up by a point or two, well within the margin of error. Meanwhile, Newsweek’s tracker and Civics suggest a modest rebound, with approval climbing from 44% to 47% in recent weeks.

Yet, the overall trend in Trump approval rating trends remains murky. Some polls, like Quantus Insights, show little to no movement at all—48% approve, 48% disapprove, unchanged from previous months. Others, like American Research Group and YouGov/Yahoo, highlight minor dips or upticks, but nothing dramatic. The average voter’s opinion may be more stable than the headlines suggest—or perhaps just more complicated.

In the end, the only certainty is uncertainty. With polls swinging from double-digit net approval to double-digit net disapproval, the question remains: Is the American electorate truly fickle, or are the polls simply capturing different slices of a deeply divided nation? As the saying goes, ask ten people about Trump, and you’ll get twelve opinions.

Not All Issues Are Created Equal: Trump Approval Rating by Issue

As President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating slips to a new second-term low, the numbers reveal a more complex story beneath the surface. Recent data from AtlasIntel—the pollster widely recognized for its accuracy in both the 2020 and 2024 elections—shows that Trump’s approval is far from uniform across the issues that matter most to Americans. In fact, the latest research underscores a sharp divergence in Trump approval rating by issue, highlighting both persistent weaknesses and pockets of relative strength.

On immigration, a signature topic for Trump, the public’s verdict is clear: 53% of Americans now judge his performance as poor, while only 47% view it positively. This marks a significant challenge for the administration, given how central immigration has been to Trump’s political identity. AtlasIntel’s granular tracking reveals that this negative tilt has persisted even as other issues have fluctuated.

The economy, once considered a strong suit for Trump, is now a source of concern. Only 42% of respondents in the May 2025 AtlasIntel poll rate his economic performance as “good” or “excellent,” while 54% call it “poor” or “terrible.” This represents a notable decline from earlier in the year, when economic optimism briefly ticked up. The shift is closely linked to the Liberation Day tariffs impact in April, which initially rattled markets and sent stocks tumbling. However, after a pause on the tariffs, consumer confidence rebounded sharply—May saw the biggest one-month jump in over a year, with the Conference Board’s index soaring to 98, well above expectations. Still, the bounce in sentiment has yet to fully restore Trump performance ratings economy-wise to previous highs.

On health care, Trump faces even steeper headwinds. Just 38% of Americans approve of his handling of this issue, while 53% disapprove. The numbers are similarly grim for his management of the national debt, with only 42% approving and 54% disapproving. These figures, tracked consistently by AtlasIntel, highlight persistent public dissatisfaction and point to areas where Trump handling national issues is viewed most skeptically.

• Immigration: 53% disapprove, 47% approve
• Economy: 42% positive, 54% negative
• Health Care: 38% positive, 53% disapprove
• National Debt: 42% approve, 54% disapprove

These issue-based splits are not just statistical curiosities—they shape the political landscape. As one political analyst put it,

“Presidents live and die on the issues—not just on the averages.”

AtlasIntel’s methodology, praised for its precision and post-stratification algorithms, allows for a nuanced view of where Trump gains or loses ground. The data shows that while headline approval numbers may fluctuate within a narrow band, the real story is in the details. On key issues like immigration, the economy, and health care, Trump’s support often erodes, with approval ratings well under half and persistent dissatisfaction among the public.

Issue-by-issue polling continues to provide the most granular insight into Trump’s standing, revealing the strengths and vulnerabilities that could define the months ahead. As research shows, these numbers are more than just snapshots—they are signals of shifting public priorities and the challenges of governing in a deeply divided nation.

History Rhymes: Comparing Trump Approval Ratings to Other Presidents

When it comes to presidential approval ratings, context is everything. As of May 2025, President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 47% according to the latest AtlasIntel survey, with 54% disapproving. This figure, while a second-term low for Trump, invites a broader Trump approval rating comparison—not just to his own past, but to the records of other modern presidents.

Looking at the numbers, Trump’s current approval lags behind his predecessors at similar points in their terms. President Joe Biden, for example, held a 54% approval rating at this stage in 2021, while Barack Obama enjoyed 65% in 2009. Ronald Reagan’s approval was even higher at 68%, and Dwight Eisenhower’s soared to 73%. The presidential approval ratings comparison is stark: Trump’s 47% is well below the postwar average for presidents at this juncture.

Yet, there’s a twist in this Trump approval rating historical comparison. Despite trailing his peers, Trump is polling better now than he did during the same period in his first term. In May 2017, Trump’s approval was just 40%, with disapproval at 54%—a net negative of 14 points. Now, he’s narrowed that gap, suggesting that while his support remains tepid by historical standards, it’s more resilient than before.

No modern president since Eisenhower has started a term with such a low approval rating. Gallup’s data, compiled by The American Presidency Project, shows that every president since 1953 began with a majority of Americans on their side. Biden started at 57%, Obama at 65%, and even George W. Bush at 62%. Trump, by contrast, was the first to enter with less than 50% approval, and that early deficit has shaped the narrative of his presidency.

Still, the story isn’t as volatile as headlines might suggest. Research shows that while Trump’s approval numbers have dipped and rebounded in recent months—affected by policies like the “Liberation Day” tariffs and economic swings—the overall trend is one of relative stability. Most polls, including those from Morning Consult and RMG Research, show only minor fluctuations, often within the margin of error.

Public sentiment on Trump’s handling of key issues like the economy, immigration, and health care has shifted, but not dramatically. For instance, his economic approval fell after the tariff announcement, but consumer confidence rebounded in May, and so did some of his approval numbers. This nuanced landscape suggests that, despite the noise, Americans’ views on Trump are less reactive than they might appear.

Presidential approval is as much about memory as about the moment. — Historian

In sum, while Trump’s presidential approval ratings remain below those of his recent predecessors, the historical context reveals a more complex picture. His second-term numbers look softer next to historic peers, yet he actually stands improved from his own first-term mid-year marks. The data, tracked by sources like RealClearPolitics and The American Presidency Project, tempers the sense of crisis that often surrounds presidential polling headlines.

Trusting the Polls: AtlasIntel, Nate Silver, and the Drama of Polling Accuracy

When it comes to measuring presidential approval, the question is no longer just “what do the numbers say?” but “how much can we trust them?” In the current political climate, where public sentiment shifts rapidly and polarization runs deep, the reliability of polling data is under constant scrutiny. This is especially true as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings hit new lows, according to the latest AtlasIntel polls—widely recognized for their accuracy by both FiveThirtyEight and polling analyst Nate Silver.

AtlasIntel has earned its reputation as the most accurate pollster for both the 2024 and 2020 U.S. elections, boasting an average error of just 0.4 percentage points in 2024 and 2 points in 2020. Their proprietary data collection and post-stratification algorithms have set a new standard for polling accuracy, with Silver himself highlighting their consistent performance. Yet, even with these advancements, the drama of polling accuracy persists. As Silver cautions, “A poll can be precise and still be wrong. That’s the paradox.”

Recent AtlasIntel poll results show Trump’s approval rating slipping to 45 percent, with 54 percent disapproving—a second-term low. These numbers, while striking, are just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Other reputable polls, such as those from Morning Consult, YouGov, and McLaughlin, paint a more mixed picture, with Trump’s approval fluctuating within a narrow band and sometimes rebounding. Some surveys even show a modest uptick in approval following economic improvements and a pause on controversial tariffs.

So, why the discrepancies? Experts point to several factors. Nate Silver, a leading voice on polling accuracy, notes that even the most sophisticated methodologies can’t fully account for the volatility of public opinion. House effects, recency bias, and sampling challenges all play a role. Social polarization further complicates the landscape, making it harder to capture the true mood of the electorate. As Silver puts it, even the sharpest polls can’t fully capture the “dynamism of an electorate mid-turbulence.”

Research shows that AtlasIntel polls are often weighted more heavily by analysts due to their recency and large sample sizes. Still, the persistent challenge remains: statistical noise and shifting attitudes can blur the lines between genuine trends and short-term fluctuations. The latest data suggest Trump’s approval is lower than at the same point in his first term, and below that of President Biden at a similar stage. Yet, the overall trend across pollsters is one of stability, with most changes falling within the margin of error.

In the end, the drama of polling accuracy is less about finding a single “truth” and more about understanding the limitations and strengths of each approach. AtlasIntel’s high marks from Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight underscore the value of rigorous methodology, but as the political winds shift, so too do the numbers. As the 2025 landscape continues to evolve, one thing remains clear: polling accuracy is as much an art as it is a science, and even the best pollsters must navigate the unpredictable tides of American public opinion.

TL;DR: Trump’s second-term approval rating, now at its lowest per AtlasIntel, is only part of a larger tale: pollster methods, volatile issues, and the country’s shifting mood make the story of presidential popularity a twisty one.

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